World Bank: global growth falls to its lowest rate since COVID-19
— · 11 weeks ago
In its Global Economic Prospects report of 11 June 2026, the World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% in 2026 from 2.9% in 2025, downgrading forecasts for two-thirds of economies relative to January.
It attributes this to the conflict in the Middle East and the sharp rise in energy prices and renewed inflationary pressure that followed. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted energy markets, with Brent crude projected to average $94 a barrel in 2026 — 36% above 2025 levels — assuming the worst disruptions abate in July.
Global inflation is expected to rise to 4.0% this year from 3.3% in 2025, and growth in developing economies to fall to a post-pandemic low of 3.6% from 4.4% in 2025 before recovering to 4.2% in 2027. Growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan is forecast to drop to 1.6% in 2026 before rebounding to 5.0% in 2027.
Source: World Bank — worldbank.org