World Bank projects a 6.4% contraction for Lebanon in 2026

The World Bank projects Lebanon's economy will contract by 6.4% in 2026, with inflation rising to 17.5% on supply disruptions, higher shipping costs and rising oil prices, in the Summer 2026 Lebanon Economic Monitor published on 21 August 2026.

Lebanon entered 2026 on firmer footing after estimated real GDP growth of 4.2% in 2025 — its fastest since the onset of the 2019 financial crisis — driven by stronger consumption, investment and tourism.

The military escalation of 2 March interrupted that recovery: further damage to housing and infrastructure, some 1.2 million people displaced, disrupted supply chains, and severe effects on tourism and domestic demand.