IMF projects 3.8% growth for Kuwait in 2026 and urges structural reform

On 18 February 2026 the IMF Executive Board concluded its Article IV consultation with Kuwait, with the statement published on 23 February.

The Fund projects real GDP growth of 3.8% in 2026, driven by the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and robust non-oil growth estimated at around 3.0%. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.1% in 2026 and then settle just below 2.0% over the medium term, while the current account surplus narrows to 19.6% of GDP in 2026 on lower oil exports.

Fiscally, the budgetary central government deficit is expected to widen to 8.7% of GDP in FY2025/26 and 9.4% in FY2026/27 on higher spending and lower oil revenue. The Fund recommends a well-sequenced package of fiscal and structural reforms including incentives for Kuwaitis to take private-sector jobs, unifying the labour market and improving the business environment, with gradual fiscal consolidation of about 1% of GDP a year over the next decade.